Use R to Statistically Pick Your March Madness Bracket!

March Madness is upon us! I’ve been using statistical models to predict my March Madness bracket for about 6 years (sometimes fairly successfully), and this year I’ve decided to post the statistical tool online for anyone to use for any last minute bracket adjustments.  Click here for the full screen version.

Here’s how to use it:

  1. Pick any two teams you’d like to match up.
  2. Pick the statistical model you’d like to employ (my favorite is Logistic Regression, but that’s just me).
  3. Pick the statistics you’d like to use in your comparison.  You can compare simply the seed, or maybe wins, losses, or three pointers – or you can pick some of the more advanced statistical measures like adjusted offensive efficiency.  Pick whatever you think is most predictive!
  4. The tool will then tell you which team will win and with what probability (just scroll down to the bottom).  That’s it!

Because it’s interesting, I’ve also included the probability (based on the last 7 years’ worth of tournaments) that an upset has occurred at your selected seed difference.  Try it out and let us know how it goes in the comments or on Twitter!

 

Trevor Paulsen

Trevor comes from the world of aerospace engineering and robotics. He studied estimation theory and data mining techniques before leading Adobe’s data science consulting team. Trevor is currently a senior product manager for Adobe Analytics and loves doing big data projects and statistical analyses on the side whenever he can. He’s a father of three and a lover of bike rides & music. All views expressed are his own.

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